As Canada’s population will grow larger in the coming decades amid high immigration and low fertility, experts say these trends have a huge impact on housing and healthcare demand. our health.
A report from Statistics Canada released on Monday said Canada’s population could reach 47.8 million in 2043 and 56.5 million in 2068 under a medium growth scenario. Other population projection scenarios say Canada’s population could grow to anywhere from 44.9 million to 74.0 million by 2068.
But the StatCan report notes that this could have an impact on housing availability. Last June, a report from the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation predicted the country’s housing supply would grow by 2.3 million units over the next decade, but said Canada needed an additional 3.5 million units. affordable housing by 2030.
Mike Moffatt, a professor at Western University’s Ivey School of Business and senior director at the Smart Prosperity Institute, says the report shows Canada’s housing supply “is not enough to keep up with a growing population get a raise.”
“I definitely think we’ll be able to plan for the growth we know is coming. That will absolutely be a challenge for so many people,” he told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday. “We need to make sure that we build homes at every price point to be able to accommodate the growing population.”
StatCan’s projections predict growth will be unevenly distributed across the country. Alberta is expected to experience the highest growth in the country, as the province’s population in 2043 is expected to be between 31 and 61% larger than it is today. In some scenarios, Wildrose Province is projected to have a larger population than BC
“Alberta has done a great job of building enough housing for the growing population. Alberta has grown quite rapidly over the past few decades and they’ve been able to maintain the housing supply. , but only from a housing standpoint. absolute numbers, they were able to do it,” Moffatt said.
According to the analysis, population growth in BC, Ontario, and Saskatchewan is predicted to be around 14 to 40 percent by 2043. Manitoba’s population is expected to grow between 11 and 40 percent, while Quebec’s population is projected to grow between 11 and 40 percent. estimated to increase from 12 to 19%.
Moffatt believes Ontario and BC are least prepared to deal with the impending growth, given the most severe housing shortages in these two provinces.
“I think most provinces shouldn’t have too much of a problem dealing with this (population growth). It’s mostly just Ontario and BC that I’m worried about.” Moffatt said.
Meanwhile, Atlantic Canada’s population could decrease by 1.5% or increase by as much as 16% by 2043, the report said. Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province projected to experience negative population growth in all projections. Population growth in the territories is expected to be around 8 to 28%.
MORE THAN ONE OF YOU CANADIAN WILL BE 65 OR UP IN 2068
Currently, 18.5 percent of Canadians are 65 or older. But under a medium growth scenario, StatCan forecasts the proportion of elderly people will increase to 23.1% in 2043 and 25.9% in 2068.
The median age in Canada is 41.7 years old in 2021, but by 2068 it is expected to increase to 45.1 years.
While Canada’s population is growing, StatCan says the nationwide birth rate hit a historic low of 1.4 in 2020 and is expected to decline in the coming years. Instead, immigration is the main driver of population growth, but StatCan notes that immigration “cannot significantly increase the proportion of youth in the population.”
Experts say these numbers underscore the need to ensure federal and provincial governments have plans to meet the health care needs of aging populations.
Susan McDaniel, a professor of sociology at the University of Victoria, told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday: “There’s nothing sudden about this.
“What we need are better systems for dealing with chronic diseases – things like arthritis that don’t require hospitalization, but can lead to mobility challenges, sometimes minor, sometimes. big,” she added.
A 2018 report from the Conference Board of Canada said Canada’s aging population would add $93 billion to the provinces’ health care costs. The public health care system also pays $12,000 per year to meet the health needs of the average elderly, compared with $2,700 for the rest of the population, the report said.
Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, notes that when Canada’s universal health care system was introduced in 1966, age and life expectancy in Canada were younger. much.
“Back in 1966, the average Canadian was about 27 years old and most Canadians didn’t live past 60,” he told CTVNews.ca by phone on Wednesday. “We designed our modern health care system primarily around the needs of a much younger population.”
“Other forms of care such as medication or PharmaCare, oral care, home care and … long-term care – all of these are not included in our overall healthcare system. And as you know, if you really don’t have Sinha say more.