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Sensex News: When will Sensex reach the magic number of 10,000? Here are some calculations on the back of the envelope


While traders are busy debating whether Sensex will rise by 2,700 points any time this year to surpass its all-time record high of 62,245.43 touched last fall, long-term investors are making contingency calculations on the moment the indicator will reach the magic 1 -lakh mark.

This early year, Jefferies‘Global head of equity strategy Christopher Wood has said Sensex’s goal of 10,000 is fully achievable by FY27 and now Dalal Street veteran fund manager Hiren Ved, said it could be as early as 2025.

Other market experts also don’t see the magic number as far-fetched.

“We believe Sensex can hit 100,000 by April 2024. Sensex goes through a cycle of greed and fear every eight years. It is in a greedy cycle that will end in April 2024,” Apurva Sheth, Head of Research, Samco Securities, told ETMarkets.

Now let’s look back at the history of Sensex. Two decades ago, the index was trading at just under 3,000 points in October 2002. After 10 years, in October 2012, it was Sensex that turned a profit on the multibagger and surpassed the 19,000 mark.

Four years ago, in October 2018, the index was at 34,000 and today it is hovering near the 60,000 mark.

“Over the past 20 years, Sensex has multiplied from 3,000 to 60,000. Kamlesh Shah, President, Association of Members of the National Exchange of India (ANMI).

He said once the global macro worries related to inflation and interest rates stabilize, India will become the preferred investment destination as it is the fastest growing major economy and intends to become the $5 trillion economy by 2025-26.

Last year, renowned value investor Raamdeo Agrawal of

predicted that if Sensex continues to compound interest at an annualized growth rate of 15%, it could hit the 20,000 mark within a decade.

Tracking India Inc’s 15-16% corporate profit growth, if Sensex grows at 15%, it will double every five years.

Chris Wood also made a similar calculation at the beginning of the year to predict that Sensex will hit 1,00,000 in FY27 or sometime by the end of 2026 amid 15% EPS growth and earnings multiples of 15%. 19.4, which is also the 5-year average.

Despite all the ups and downs seen in 2022, the Indian stock market remains one of the rare oases of calm in the global markets.

“I think India is transitioning from being part of the global emerging markets to being a single country,” said Nilesh Shah.

AMC.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by experts are their own. These recommendations do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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