Is Raiders’ Derek Carr The NFL’s Next Matthew Stafford?

Did Derek Carr just change the landscape?

Did Derek Carr just change the landscape?
Image: Getty Images

What defines a quarterback of Super Bowl caliber? Statistics? Eye check? System compatibility? It is difficult to define and arguably impossible to define, especially for midfielders who have been stuck in bad situations for most of their careers. Matthew Stafford was lucky enough to find a way out of his dire situation in Detroit and win a Super Bowl with Los Angeles, proving that he really is the high-profile talent his defenders have. always insists he is, even if 2022 doesn’t go quite well. I have a strange feeling that Derek Carr might go down the same path.

2022 is Derek Carr’s ninth year with the Raiders. Here’s how his nine years compare to Stafford’s final nine years in Detroit on a 17-game-per-game basis:

Stafford (2012-2020) — Completion rate 63.3, 4659 yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 4.4 touchdown rates, 2.1 INT rates, 7.3 yards adjusted per attempt, pass rate 91.1 ball, 5.9% drop rate, 26 fourth-half comebacks, 32 game wins

Derek Carr (2014-2022) — Completion rate 64.6, 4217 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 4.4 TD rates, 2.0 INT rates, 7.1 yards adjusted per attempt, pass rate 91.8, 5.1% drop rate, 28 fourth-half comebacks, 33 winning batting

Stafford was 32 years old in his final season with Detroit. Carr will be 32 years old in two months. Both players have reached the knockout stages at least twice (although Carr only played one due to injury), but have never won a knockout match. Stafford has endured four different head coaches during his final nine seasons with Detroit. Carr endured seven. Stafford was arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL for several years under Calvin Johnson. Carr had Davante Adams this year. He also had a reception crew that included Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree for several years.

Stafford and Carr by numbers

The similarities between these two midfielders are obvious and it goes even deeper than the stats I mentioned. In terms of actual yards adjusted for each attempt, Stafford hit 6.44 from 2012 to 2020. Carr accumulated a figure of 6.41 between 2014 and 2022. Stafford had 26 or more attempts. again in the fourth quarter. Carr has 28. Stafford designed 32 winning shots in the game. car? 33.

I’m not saying that Carr will definitely succeed with another team. I would never speak so absolutely. There are certainly some disturbing statistics with Carr. For example, Carr’s interception rate has increased over the past four seasons, from 1.6% in 2019 to 2.8% in 2022. Stafford, meanwhile, has remained the same, ranging from a minimum of 1. .7% to 2% in his last four years.

Carr’s Raiders usually has a much more consistent running game between Latavius ​​Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Josh Jacobs than Stafford’s Lions with Theo Riddick? Kerryon Johnson? Amer Abdullah? Joique Bell? Adrian Peterson 35 years old? Furthermore, Stafford has never been on the bench for the likes of Jarrett Stidham. Still, it could have been a precaution to ensure Carr didn’t get injured and cost the Raiders an additional $35 million over the next two years.

Despite the concerns, the similarities between Carr and Stafford far outweigh the differences. Carr is still young, incredibly resilient and has provided an invaluable veteran presence in the Raid dressing room for many years now. I understand the concerns about Carr’s play this year. With the addition of Adams, he is expected to take a huge step forward. While Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts have enjoyed massive growth with the additions of Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown respectively, Carr has remained stagnant and possibly even regressed, but I suppose that has more to do with that. to head coach Josh McDaniels.

Can Derek Carr turn the tide?

Since 2016, Carr has had five different play callers. This is Carr’s passer rating in the first and second half of each season with each player calling.

2016: 90.1 first half passer rating, 91.7 second half passer rating — Bill Musgrave is caller

2017: 88.5, 79.6 — Todd Downing

2018: 89.9, 97.2 — Jon Gruden

2019: 108.8, 91.6 — Jon Gruden

2020: 110.2, 92.2 — Jon Gruden

2021: 90,0, 97.8 — Greg Olson

2022: 96.6, 73.5 — Josh McDaniels

Do you see the problem? Carr has proven he can still dribble with effective call-out play, but in the second half of games this season, Carr becomes his brother David? I do not think so. It doesn’t matter in 2021, the year before or the year before that etc. McDaniels probably don’t know how to adjust the attack plan during halftime or something like that because such a big difference can be. is not random. It’s also not just the reviews of passersby.

Carr in the first half of the game in 2022:

66 completion rate, 1852 yards, 14 touchdowns, six interceptions, 7.45 yards adjusted per attempt

Carr in the second half of the game in 2022:

Completion rate 54.96, 1570 yards, 9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 5.74 yards adjusted per attempt

McDaniels kept Carr back in 2022, but as the Raiders are too concerned with McDaniels’ cash to give him up now, Carr’s departure will be much more economical and, therefore, he probably won’t. back in 2023. That said, yes some teams that would massively upgrade in midfield by adding Carr to their roster, and he’s definitely worth a try and maybe even a long-term deal. Will he immediately win a Super Bowl like Stafford did? Not sure. Not only is that fact hard to predict, but the Rams have a host of high-profile talent among Andrew Whitworth, Cooper Kupp, Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald on their roster. Most teams can’t match that level of all-round talent, but there’s still a chance.

Carr has been underappreciated and underappreciated for most of his career, and perhaps a change of context is just what he needs to emerge from the shadow of the Black Hole.


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