Drew Timme and (#9) Gonzaga Bulldogs (March 12) will visit the San Francisco Dons (June 11) on Thursday night.
Drew Timme scored 35 points, 10 rebounds in a 111-88 home win over Pepperdine to help extend the Bulldogs’ winning streak to seven games. The Six Bulldogs line up in double digits with 2020 top prospect Julian Strawther, trailing only Timme with 22 points at 8/13.
Despite competing in the West Coast Conference, the Bulldogs have had one of the most demanding schedules this season, playing against teams like Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, Xavier, Baylor and Alabama.
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco Betting odds
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Since the start of the 7-1 season, San Francisco played inconsistently, beating UNLV on the road but losing to UT Arlington and San Diego at home. Chris Gerlufsen is in his first season at the helm of the Dons after Todd Golden turned his success at San Fran into a head coach job in Florida.
Two-time All-WCC champion and three-year starter Khalil Shabazz fueled the team to score, while Washington State transfer Tyrell Roberts and former Nevada forward Zane Meeks also sat in dual positions. Texas A&M transfer Marcus Williams also participated.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight the essentials shot quality data for this match, including Adjusted Attack and Defense SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average Shot Quality score per possession.
Therefore, SQppp = Total SQ Points/Total Possessions.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs own one 1.14 AdjOFF SQ This season, ranked 12th nationally. San Francisco ranked 129 AdjustDEF SQ at 0.95. Gonzaga does well on all the key metrics, but in terms of distance, where they stand in 22nd percentile, and rim&three percentage, where they rank 240th in the country. In contrast, the Dons are in the top 60 for both of those defensive stats.
Bulldogs possess high frequency numbers in cropping, rim finishing, isolation, background and transition styles. They’re in the top 150 in all of those shots but rank in the top 50 in post-production and isolation. In contrast, Dons is in the top 150 in all of those categories except for isolation and transition, ranking outside the top 240.
San Francisco Dons has 1.01 AdjOFF SQ, the 164th best score in the country. Gonzaga posted 0.95 AdjustDEF SQ this season, coming in at 51st place in the country. Dons is in the top 30 for distance, rims and triple ratio. The Bulldogs are in the 67th percentile for defensive distance and firmly in the defensive belt and three.
San Francisco is in the first half of the country in terms of frequency with regards to the following types of shots: three-pointer catch and shot, half-court, isolation, three-pointer off-ball, off-screen and selector screen, and roll the ball. In addition, San Fran is also ranked in the top 100 for setting and setting. Gonzaga is in the top 100 for blocking all of those shots.
Gonzaga vs San Francisco Prediction
Gonzaga’s SQ PPP numbers could be better, but they don’t take into account SOS either. Their key metrics suggest they are a more balanced team. However, they need help to stop a solid line of San Fran in tonight’s match.
It will be a packed house for this late-night WCC game, and the Dons will show up as they try to make it difficult for the front runner in the conference. That said, they still need an answer for Timme, meaning they will need to score points if they want to play against the Bulldogs. So take over and expect a shootout in this one.
Prediction: Above 156.5 (-110)